2019 – The Year Ahead - Winter 2019

The pace of new development has been at a frenzy the past five years, and with numerous projects approved, financed and in the pipeline, any slowdown should be almost imperceptible over the next 12 months. Still, the rising costs of construction and commodity prices, combined with the time needed to absorb new product and the impact of rising interest rates, will likely soften at least some developer enthusiasm going forward. The various barometers of our marketplace – occupancy rates in the office retail, industrial and apartment markets – will likely strengthen if fundamentals such as in-migration and macro-economic factors remain solid. Such conditions may even spur future building in the relative near term. Sarasota will continue to change dramatically as new residential occupants come and leave their collective imprint on the market. Look for the service industry in particular to thrive across a wide spectrum, from banking to wealth management and healthcare to hospitality. We expect unemployment rates to remain well below five percent, which will heighten the pressure for wage increases. My prognostication is that barring a national catastrophe, 2019 will be another positive year in our real estate market. I do not anticipate a major correction will occur, simply because too many factors continue to be positive. Naturally, some segments of the market will do better than others, in part because we have reached some top limits in pricing and buyers are simply saying no to unrealistic expectations. That, too, however, is a positive, as it adds another level of discipline.