Commercial Real Estate Market Correction is Premature - Fall 2018

File this under “Too much of a good thing?” The greater Sarasota commercial real estate market has been ascending across multiple sectors for six-plus years now, which has prompted some pundits to look for cracks in the market and question whether a downturn is imminent. Many of these prognostications seem to be based solely on the length of the growth cycle. By their logic, it’s “time” the market corrected. Historically speaking, it is easy to point to cycles and say we are ready for the next shift. However, I learned early in my real estate career that events shift cycles and not the passage of time. Look to population growth and interest rate, and tax law changes to name three that usher recessions and appreciation cycles alike. While the injuries of the Great Recession a decade ago and the subsequent “buying opportunities” that followed remain fresh memories there seems a macabre anticipation of a correction – perhaps out of a desire to take advantage of perceived “bargains.” Without question, a market correction will occur as real estate markets are cyclical, but when a correction will take place and how profoundly it affects the market is less easily answered. Over my 35-plus year career, the one factor that has presaged every economic recession I have witnessed has been abundant access to unsecured debt and other available funding sources – and that is not present today. I can see six to nine months down the road and I see no correction in the Sarasota commercial real estate market; unless some unforeseen national or international crisis pushes it to the fore.