Forecast - Fall 2013

Forecasting the commercial real estate market is like trying to describe anything from a distance.  The shorter the distance the clearer the vision and the more accurate the description.  Predicting the future of the Sarasota real estate market beyond six months is difficult to say the least as unknown variables impact the market and specifics of the forecast become clouded.  Historically, Sarasota commercial real estate has been a huge winner which makes my long term forecast very positive.  However, based on today’s product over-supply in some sectors I do not see significant immediate change in the commercial real estate market.  There are two factors that will initiate change in our market.  New projects constructed and operational always boost the market and improve neighborhood property values.  Unfortunately, completion of new projects takes about 18 months or more.   Unemployment must also change for our market to improve.     Locally, the unemployment rate is higher than the national 7.6%.  Looking out six months, expect the strong areas such as Main Street retail and the best market locations to continue to do well but the balance of the market will continue to struggle.