A L-O-N-G look into the future - Spring 2018

I often tell people that I feel comfortable forecasting the commercial real estate market six to 12 months into the future, based on market experience, superior data that we collect and collate and industry trends, but after that time, there are too many variables that can cloud one’s vision. So I will acknowledge that I am going way out on a limb in envisioning Sarasota in 2028. Still, such a look forward is appropriate in light of all the developments that are changing the cityscape today. I contend that a decade from now, barring a major catastrophe, natural disaster or national economic collapse, the construction of the multitude of downtown projects planned or proposed today will largely be completed. These will be led by GreenPointe Communities’ $1 billion development on the 15-acre former Quay site. The city-owned, 42-acre Bayfront land adjacent to it, meanwhile, will have been transformed into a magnificent park and community feature rivaling the best cities of the world. Sarasota’s population a decade from now will top 60,000 and the city will be an even better place to live and visit, replete with an even wider array of entertainment options and amenities found in other small metropolitan locales. North Tamiami Trail will be a desired residential area, driven by consumer demand to be in close proximity to the city’s thriving downtown and fueled by the Ringling College of Art + Design’s improvements in the area. Sarasota Bay, the key to Sarasota’s success, will thrive as well, thanks to continued efforts to stop runoff, encourage seagrass growth and replace invasive vegetation on the shoreline and spoil islands with native species. Just outside the city, Nathan Benderson Park will host nearly every major rowing competition in the U.S., even as the nearby Mote Marine’s aquarium there draws thousands of visitors each year. We predict Sarasota County’s population will swell to 700,000, led by growth in South County. Already, the West Villages is among the fastest-growing master-planned communities nationwide.