Why the Sarasota-Area Commercial Real Estate Market Isn't at Its Apex - Fall 2018

When forecasting the market’s outlook, I consider indicators rather than intuition. From my vantage point, I see more and more baby boomers retiring with cash who are looking to relocate to Florida, low unemployment, relatively low interest rates, high levels of consumer confidence, lender and buyer discipline, and lots of cash in the marketplace. These positive market indicators suggest real estate values will continue to rise, albeit at perhaps a more disciplined pace than of the past three years. Commercial real estate has generally recaptured the values lost during the Great Recession, and there has been a dramatic increase in valuations in most sectors over the past eight years, especially in multi-family, hospitality and industrial properties. My forecast for the foreseeable future is for continued measured value increases commensurate with steady demand increases in the various market segments.